If sports bettors needed a reminder of the importance of money management AND discipline, The Phillies provided it with a half-hearted and insincere effort against the Diamondbacks on Thursday night.
Philadelphia had won 31 of 46 games on the road this season. They were 20-5 in their last 25 games overall and a profitable 13-7 against the NL West. They were coming off a win Tuesday night against All-Star Dan Haren and it appeared that a sweep of the Diamondbacks wasn't just likely but a foregone conclusion. That is until the Phillies decided to take the night off in their series finale. Facing a journeyman pitcher, who was reportedly one more bad appreance from being out of baseball, the favored Phillies (-164) were beaten by Yusmeiro Petit. That's right, the same Yusmeiro Petit who came into the game with a 0-5 record and hadn't won a big league contest in almost a year. He took the hill with an ERA of well over 7.00 but pitched more like Cy Young. He struck out eight and allowed just four hits in six innings and at one point retired 12 Philadelphia batters in a row. An amazing performance from a guy we'll never hear about again.
Now let's analyze this from a gambling perspective. I realize that there's no such thing as a sure thing. But even those who were on opposite sides of this game were left shaking their head. A couple of SBR veterans (thanks Pimike) stepped up with their takes.
Mike, in response to another poster who thought the game was fixed (we hear that a lot) responded: "Not sure about rigged, but when it looks too good it usually is". As it turns out he was not only right about that but dead on with his play:" I got a weird feeling on D-backs +1.5 and winning outright". Touche!
Now before you jump to the conclusion that Mike just pulled the Arizona play out of his butt, the guys knows his stuff. For example his reasoning behind playing Arizona:
" Road favorites that look too good, are games to watch out for. Get away day prior to a road trip and avoid the sweep. Too many factors going against the obvious such as Happ vs. a no winner all year, best team versus one of the bottom teams is not always the only thing to review in a play day play. But you know this being a pro handicapper".
Mike I can't argue with any of the above, even if there was a "smidge" of sarcasm in mentioning the pro handicapper thing.
By now some if not all of you are prepared to offer me some cheese to go with my whine. But as Richard Nixon once said:" let me say this, about that". I can take a loss with the best of them and I've been dealt my fair share of bad beats including a couple of them this week (see Russ Gload, Florida Marlins). But I'd rather lose my money in that fashion as opposed to watching the Yusmerio Petit's of the world mow down the World Champions. Guys at least give an effort, pretend that you care.
In conclusion, there's this issue of money management and discipline which I keep forgetting now and then. After wins with the Giants and Angels I was enjoying a 2-0 day and nice profit. But instead of calling it a night, I went back for one more drink at the fountain. Now that in itself wasn't a major mistake, but making uneven wagers was. So despite a 2-1 day, yours truly lost money. Rookie mistake from, what did Mike call me. a "pro handicapper". Make a mistake like that is tantamount to those important "point swings" in sports. You miss a basket, they make and it's a four point swing. The same can be said about a winning day becoming a losing day. It's a blow to your Psyche and it could have easily been avoided.
So I've decided to sit out for a couple of days and re-read "Sports Betting For Dummies". I'm not in a club but it's become my "book of the month". While I'm reading, I'll take you up on that offer for some cheese and you're welcome to join me. I'm going to have a nice little bonfire fueled by every damn Phillies baseball card I have. I'll even throw in a couple of Petit rookie cards while I'm at it.